A Year of Re-Engagement, Not a Boom: What the 2024–2025 Data Says About the Whatcom County Housing Market

Housing forecasts tend to carry emotional weight, especially for longtime homeowners who have lived through whiplash conditions over the past several years. After the urgency of 2020–2021 and the sudden stall that followed, many sellers are understandably cautious about trusting another set of predictions. Beneath the headlines sits a quieter concern: Is this finally the moment the market breaks loose again, or is another disruption waiting just ahead?

What makes 2026 different is not optimism, but alignment. For the first time in several years, most major forecasts are describing the same general shape of the market—not overheated, not collapsing, but functioning. That kind of consensus matters because it points to normalization rather than a temporary swing in sentiment.

Across nearly every major outlook—from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economists such as Windermere’s chief economist, the expectations are strikingly consistent. More listings are expected to come to market. Mortgage rates are projected to ease modestly. Sales activity should rise slightly. Prices are forecast to remain flat or gently higher.

This is why 2026 is not best understood as a comeback year. It is a reset year, one where movement returns not because of excitement, but because the system starts working again.

Whatcom County Housing Market: 2024–2025 Year-Over-Year Snapshot

Before looking ahead, it’s important to understand what actually happened locally over the past year.

Figure 1: Year-Over-Year Housing Market Indicators (12-Month Rolling Averages)

Metric                       2024            2025         % Change   

Homes for Sale       518               714            +41.7%   

Pending Sales         199               204             +2.8%   

Closed Sales            248               252            +1.5%   

Days on Market       20                 26               +30%   

Median Sales Price $608,685    $623,179   +2.4%   

Months of Supply    2.4               3.4              +41.7%   

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS)

Single-family residential and manufactured homes; condos excluded. Figures reflect 12-month rolling averages to reduce seasonal distortion.

What stands out is not any single metric, but the combination. Inventory increased meaningfully, homes took longer to sell, yet demand held and prices remained stable. That pattern is not a weakening market. It is a rebalancing one.

National Outlook: The Market Starts Working Again

Nationally, existing-home sales are expected to rise modestly in 2026, generally in the low single digits. Even with that improvement, sales volumes are projected to remain below pre-pandemic norms. This is not a demand problem so much as a turnover problem.

Roughly four out of five homeowners with mortgages still hold rates below 6%, which continues to discourage discretionary moves. As a result, transactions are expected to remain driven primarily by life events: retirement, family changes, job transitions, downsizing, rather than speculation or fear of missing out.

Markets shaped by necessity behave very differently from markets driven by urgency, and that distinction is central to understanding the year ahead.

Mortgage Rates: Why 6% to 6.3% Is Meaningful Relief

Most forecasts place average 30-year mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.3% range in 2026. For homeowners who remember rates starting with a three, that may not sound transformative. But context matters.

In 2024 and 2025, rates hovered closer to 6.6% to 7%, with extended periods above 7%. That rapid rise, the fastest increase in more than 50 years, didn’t just slow buyers down. It broke affordability math for many households.

A move from the high sixes into the low sixes does not make housing cheap. What it does do is reopen doors that were fully closed.

In Whatcom County, where a typical home price sits in the mid-$600,000 range, the difference is tangible. At roughly 6.9%, a standard principal-and-interest payment lands around $4,100 per month. At closer to 6.1%, that payment drops nearer to $3,700.

As Andi Dyer notes, “Lower rates won’t bring back the frenzy—but they do make the math workable again, and that’s what allows movement to return.”

Over the past 30 years, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered around 6.5% to 7%. Seen through that lens, projected 2026 rates are not historically high. The sub-4% years were the anomaly.

Home Prices: Nominal Stability, Real Improvement

Price forecasts for 2026 are among the calmest in recent memory. Nationally, expectations cluster around 1% to 3% appreciation, and forecasts for the broader Puget Sound region lean even flatter.

Looking back over the past several years, home values in Whatcom County followed a clear pattern. Prices rose quickly from 2020 through mid-2022 as competition intensified and inventory tightened. After that surge, growth slowed. Instead of continuing to climb at the same pace, prices began to level out through 2023 and into 2024 as higher interest rates cooled buyer urgency and stretched affordability.

By 2025, the market shifted again. Prices did not fall sharply, but they also were not racing upward. Instead, they moved forward at a modest, sustainable pace. That slower movement is what many homeowners experienced as “the market cooling,” even though values largely held and, in many areas, continued to edge higher.

Just as importantly, Whatcom County followed the same rhythm as the broader Northwest market during this entire cycle. Local prices rose when regional prices rose, and they steadied when the wider market steadied. That suggests these shifts were driven more by national forces, like interest rates and inflation, than by local instability.

Looking ahead, the more meaningful improvement may come from affordability rather than from price changes alone. If incomes and inflation continue to grow faster than home prices, the share of income required for housing can ease without requiring home values to fall. Several national forecasts expect affordability measures to improve modestly in 2026, reversing some of the pressure seen over the past two years.

This kind of shift does not generate dramatic headlines, but it changes behavior. When affordability improves gradually, buyers become more deliberate and sellers must be more precise. Volatility gives way to negotiation, and decision-making becomes less reactive.

Inventory: The Quiet Catalyst of 2026

Inventory growth remains one of the most consequential—and least flashy—drivers of change. Across much of Washington, active listings have been rebuilding toward pre-pandemic norms. Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers have more choices. Sellers face real competition.

This is not a distressed market. It is a market where pricing accuracy, preparation, and strategy matter more than timing. Homes aligned with market reality continue to sell. Homes that are not tend to linger until expectations adjust.

How Life-Event Selling Shapes the Local Market

One reason national forecasts translate more cleanly to Whatcom County than many regions is the nature of local sellers themselves. Most homeowners here are not reacting to financial pressure. They are making planned transitions tied to retirement timing, family needs, lifestyle changes, or long-held intentions to relocate.

Life-event sellers behave differently. They tend to prioritize certainty and outcome quality over chasing peak pricing. As a result, price corrections tend to be shallower, inventory builds more gradually, and negotiation replaces volatility rather than panic.

As Andi Dyer explains, “This isn’t a market driven by urgency or fear. Most sellers here are moving because their lives are changing, not because the market is forcing them.” That underlying stability is a key reason the 2026 outlook points toward re-engagement rather than disruption.

Local Risk Factors: Flood-Affected Sellers Re-Entering the Market

While the broader Whatcom County market remains structurally stable, 2026 will likely see a number of homeowners impacted by past flooding in Sumas and Everson choosing to put their homes on the market. For many of these households, the decision is less about current pricing conditions and more about long-term certainty.

Flood exposure has introduced ongoing questions around insurance availability, future premiums, and disclosure complexity. Even when properties have been repaired or mitigated, uncertainty around insurability and future risk can weigh heavily on planning decisions. As a result, some homeowners are opting to act sooner, while conditions remain orderly, rather than waiting for insurance rules or buyer sentiment to shift further.

This does not represent distress, nor does it signal broader market weakness. Instead, it reflects a practical reassessment of risk by a specific group of sellers—one that may modestly increase inventory in those areas without materially affecting the countywide outlook.

Common Misconceptions to Watch For

One of the most persistent misunderstandings heading into 2026 is the belief that a “better” market automatically rewards every seller. Normal markets are selective markets. They reward realism rather than hope.

Another common misread is assuming that slightly lower rates will recreate the dynamics of 2021. They will not. The conditions that produced that period no longer exist, and that is precisely why the current environment is more stable.

Flat pricing is also often misinterpreted as failure. In reality, periods of nominal stability often provide the healthiest conditions for thoughtful decision-making, especially for homeowners with equity and long-term plans.

Closing Perspective: A Market That Rewards Clarity

For Whatcom County homeowners, 2026 is less about predicting the perfect moment and more about understanding the conditions under which good decisions are made. After years of distortion—first by urgency, then by hesitation—the market is settling into something steadier and more transparent. That does not remove complexity, but it does reduce noise. In a market like this, sellers who plan deliberately, understand their risk, and price with realism are no longer competing against extremes. They are simply meeting a market that has started working again.

Sources & Methodology

This forecast draws from a synthesis of national and regional housing outlooks, including projections from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economic commentary from Windermere’s chief economist, Jeff Tucker. Rather than relying on outlier predictions, this analysis emphasizes areas of agreement across forecasts.

National data is interpreted through a local lens, accounting for Whatcom County’s seller demographics, equity profiles, inventory composition, and historically low levels of distressed sales. Localized risks—such as flood exposure in specific submarkets—are considered for their impact on planning and timing rather than assumed price effects.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care.

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