Andi Dyer’s 2026 Whatcom County Housing Market Forecast

A Year of Re-Engagement, Not a Boom
Housing forecasts tend to carry emotional weight, especially for longtime homeowners who have lived through whiplash conditions over the past several years. After the urgency of 2020–2021 and the sudden stall that followed, many sellers are understandably cautious about trusting another set of predictions. Beneath the headlines sits a quieter concern: Is this finally the moment the market breaks loose again, or is another disruption waiting just ahead?
What makes 2026 different is not optimism, but alignment. For the first time in several years, most major forecasts are describing the same general shape of the market—not overheated, not collapsing, but functioning. That kind of consensus matters because it points to normalization rather than a temporary swing in sentiment.
Across nearly every major outlook—from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economists such as Windermere’s chief economist Jeff Tucker—the expectations are strikingly consistent. More listings are expected to come to market. Mortgage rates are projected to ease modestly. Sales activity should rise slightly. Prices are forecast to remain flat or gently higher.
This is why 2026 is not best understood as a comeback year. It is a reset year, one where movement returns not because of excitement, but because the system starts working again.
National Outlook: The Market Starts Working Again
Nationally, existing-home sales are expected to rise modestly in 2026, generally in the low single digits. Even with that improvement, sales volumes will remain well below pre-pandemic norms. This is not a demand problem so much as a turnover problem.
Roughly four out of five homeowners with mortgages still hold rates below 6%, which continues to discourage discretionary moves. As a result, transactions in 2026 are expected to be driven primarily by life events—retirement, family changes, job transitions, downsizing—rather than speculation or fear of missing out.
Markets shaped by necessity behave very differently from markets driven by urgency, and this distinction is central to understanding the year ahead.
Mortgage Rates: Why 6% to 6.3% Is Meaningful Relief
Most forecasts place average 30-year mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.3% range in 2026. For homeowners who remember rates starting with a three, that may not sound transformative. But context matters.
In 2024 and 2025, rates hovered closer to 6.6% to 7%, with extended periods above 7%. That rapid rise—nearly doubling from early 2022—was the fastest increase in more than 50 years, and it didn’t just slow buyers down. It broke affordability math entirely for many households.
A move from the high sixes into the low sixes does not make housing cheap. What it does do is reopen doors that were fully closed. In practical terms, it materially changes monthly payments and purchasing power without requiring prices to fall.
In Whatcom County, where a typical home price sits in the mid-$600,000 range, the difference is tangible. At roughly 6.9%, a standard principal-and-interest payment lands around $4,100 per month. At closer to 6.1%, that payment falls nearer to $3,700. That $400 difference does not erase affordability challenges, but it often makes the difference between qualifying and not qualifying, or between stretching uncomfortably and feeling stable.
As Andi Dyer notes, “Lower rates won’t bring back the frenzy—but they do make the math workable again, and that’s what allows movement to return.”
Over the past 30 years, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered around 6.5% to 7%. Seen through that lens, projected 2026 rates are not historically high. The sub-4% years were the anomaly, driven by emergency policy rather than long-term norms.
Home Prices: Nominal Stability, Real Improvement
Price forecasts for 2026 are among the calmest in recent memory. Nationally, expectations cluster around 1% to 3% appreciation. Locally, forecasts for the broader Puget Sound region lean even flatter.
The more important story is real affordability rather than nominal pricing. Inflation and income growth are expected to outpace home price gains, meaning the share of income required for housing is projected to ease. Nationally, that ratio is expected to dip below 30% for the first time since 2022.
This shift does not generate dramatic headlines, but it changes behavior. When affordability improves gradually, buyers become more deliberate and sellers must be more precise. Volatility gives way to negotiation, and decision-making becomes less reactive.
Inventory: The Quiet Catalyst of 2026
Inventory growth remains one of the most consequential—and least flashy—drivers of change. Across much of Washington, active listings have been rebuilding toward pre-pandemic norms. Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers have more choices. Sellers face real competition.
This is not a distressed market. It is a market where pricing accuracy, preparation, and strategy matter more than timing. Homes aligned with market reality continue to sell. Homes that are not tend to linger until expectations adjust.
How Life-Event Selling Shapes the Local Market
One reason national forecasts translate more cleanly to Whatcom County than many regions is the nature of local sellers themselves. Most homeowners here are not reacting to financial pressure. They are making planned transitions tied to retirement timing, family needs, lifestyle changes, or long-held intentions to relocate.
Life-event sellers behave differently. They tend to prioritize certainty and outcome quality over chasing peak pricing. As a result, price corrections tend to be shallower, inventory builds more gradually, and negotiation replaces volatility rather than panic.
As Andi Dyer explains, “This isn’t a market driven by urgency or fear. Most sellers here are moving because their lives are changing, not because the market is forcing them.” That underlying stability is a key reason the 2026 outlook points toward re-engagement rather than disruption.
Local Risk Factors: Flood-Affected Sellers Re-Entering the Market
While the broader Whatcom County market remains structurally stable, 2026 will likely see a number of homeowners impacted by past flooding in Sumas and Everson choosing to put their homes on the market. For many of these households, the decision is less about current pricing conditions and more about long-term certainty.
Flood exposure has introduced ongoing questions around insurance availability, future premiums, and disclosure complexity. Even when properties have been repaired or mitigated, uncertainty around insurability and future risk can weigh heavily on planning decisions. As a result, some homeowners are opting to act sooner, while conditions remain orderly, rather than waiting for insurance rules or buyer sentiment to shift further.
This does not represent distress, nor does it signal broader market weakness. Instead, it reflects a practical reassessment of risk by a specific group of sellers—one that may modestly increase inventory in those areas without materially affecting the countywide outlook.
Common Misconceptions to Watch For
One of the most persistent misunderstandings heading into 2026 is the belief that a “better” market automatically rewards every seller. Normal markets are selective markets. They reward realism rather than hope.
Another common misread is assuming that slightly lower rates will recreate the dynamics of 2021. They will not. The conditions that produced that period no longer exist, and that is precisely why the current environment is more stable.
Flat pricing is also often misinterpreted as failure. In reality, periods of nominal stability often provide the healthiest conditions for thoughtful decision-making, especially for homeowners with equity and long-term plans.
Closing Perspective: A Market That Rewards Clarity
For Whatcom County homeowners, 2026 is less about predicting the perfect moment and more about understanding the conditions under which good decisions are made. After years of distortion—first by urgency, then by hesitation—the market is settling into something steadier and more transparent. That does not remove complexity, but it does reduce noise. In a market like this, sellers who plan deliberately, understand their risk, and price with realism are no longer competing against extremes. They are simply meeting a market that has started working again.
Sources & Methodology
This forecast draws from a synthesis of national and regional housing outlooks, including projections from the National Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Redfin, and regional economic commentary from Windermere’s chief economist, Jeff Tucker. Rather than relying on outlier predictions, this analysis emphasizes areas of agreement across forecasts.
National data is interpreted through a local lens, accounting for Whatcom County’s seller demographics, equity profiles, inventory composition, and historically low levels of distressed sales. Localized risks—such as flood exposure in specific submarkets—are considered for their impact on planning and timing rather than assumed price effects.
Press Pull Summary (For Media Use)
Headline:
Whatcom County’s 2026 Housing Market Signals a Return to Normal Functioning
Pull Quote:
“Lower rates won’t bring back the frenzy—but they do make the math workable again, and that’s what allows movement to return.” — Andi Dyer, Bellingham real estate broker
Summary:
According to Bellingham-based real estate broker Andi Dyer, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of re-engagement rather than a boom for the Whatcom County housing market. With inventory gradually rebuilding, mortgage rates easing into the low-6% range, and prices remaining stable, Dyer describes a market that is beginning to function normally after years of disruption. Most local sellers, she notes, are making planned, life-event-driven moves rather than reacting to pressure, creating steadier conditions and more deliberate decision-making across the market.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andi Dyer is a Bellingham-based real estate broker with RE/MAX Whatcom County, specializing in helping longtime homeowners and sellers make confident, well-informed decisions. With a calm, data-driven approach and strong negotiation expertise, Andi focuses on protecting equity, reducing stress, and guiding sellers through the process with clarity and care.
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